JNIM, ISIL Rivalry Intensifies as Burkina Faso Loses Ground to Armed Groups

Rival armed groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIL have intensified deadly clashes along Burkina Faso's northern border with Mali, as the government struggles to regain control of territories affected by the wider security crisis.

The fighting involves Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, and the ISIL affiliate in Sahel Province (ISSP). Their confrontations have escalated since early September, with both groups competing for territory, influence and control across the Sahel borderlands.

Although both sides have made claims of heavy casualties, the figures released by the groups have not been independently verified.

Rival Groups Claim Heavy Casualties

One of the major confrontations occurred near Kacham, close to the Mali border, in early September. ISSP claimed it killed more than 200 JNIM fighters, captured over 30 others and seized weapons and motorcycles.

According to Heni Nsaibia of conflict monitoring organisation Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), if confirmed, the reported death toll would make the confrontation the deadliest recorded battle between the two groups.

The clashes escalated again on October 9 around Ganadaouri in Burkina Faso's Oudalan province. ISIL's weekly publication, Al-Naba, subsequently claimed that more than 400 JNIM fighters had been killed. JNIM has not publicly responded, and the casualty figure remains unverified.

On November 1, ISSP published photographs it presented as evidence of its victory. Regional news outlet i-Sahel counted at least 120 bodies in the images but said it could not independently establish whether those pictured were victims of the reported battle.

JNIM Continues to Challenge Government Forces

The confrontation is part of a rivalry dating back to 2019, when the two armed groups began fighting over territory, influence and access to local populations across the Sahel.

ACLED has recorded approximately 320 armed confrontations between them, resulting in more than 2,200 fighter deaths since the conflict began.

Despite the clashes with ISSP, JNIM continues to make territorial gains against government forces in Burkina Faso. The International Crisis Group says the group controls extensive areas, particularly in the northern, north-central, western and eastern parts of the country.

ACLED's March 2026 overview documented more than 30 JNIM attacks during a February offensive targeting the military and state-backed Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP).

The attacks reportedly killed more than 120 soldiers, forest guards and militia fighters, highlighting the pressure on government forces as they battle multiple security threats.

Conflict Raises Humanitarian and Regional Concerns

The rivalry between the armed groups could provide some relief for Burkina Faso's authorities if JNIM is forced to divert fighters and resources to defend its positions against ISSP.

However, analysts warn that the infighting may not translate into lasting security gains for the government, as both groups remain active across the region and continue to compete for territory.

The wider conflict has displaced millions of people and disrupted access to farmland, markets and essential services. United Nations humanitarian planning figures estimate that 4.5 million people in Burkina Faso will require humanitarian assistance in 2026.

The last consolidated official estimate of internal displacement, published in March 2023, put the number at approximately 2.1 million people.

The rivalry has also spread beyond Burkina Faso and Mali. ACLED has documented clashes and related activity in Niger's Tillaberi and Dosso regions, as well as Nigeria's Kebbi State, raising concerns about the expansion of armed violence into other parts of West Africa.

JNIM's Expansion Alarms Coastal West African Countries

Security analysts have warned that JNIM's expanding operations could increase the threat to countries along the Gulf of Guinea.

Viraj Pattni, a senior associate at security risk management company Castor Vali, told Al Jazeera that JNIM had intensified its activities in western and southern Mali over the past two years.

He said the group had established at least one training camp in Mali's Sikasso Region, positioning it to expand its operations towards the border with Ivory Coast.

Pattni also pointed to JNIM's growing activities in Togo and Benin, noting that the group had extended its operations further into Benin in 2025 and claimed its first official attack in Nigeria's Kwara State in October 2025.

He identified porous borders, marginalisation in northern communities and communal tensions as factors that could contribute to the group's continued expansion into coastal West Africa.

ISIL Rivalry Could Weaken JNIM's Regional Position

Heni Nsaibia said the increasingly deadly confrontations could force JNIM to redirect resources away from its primary campaign against government forces and allied militias in Mali and Burkina Faso.

He noted that JNIM had struggled to counter ISSP, which has recorded victories in some of the rival groups' most significant battles in recent years.

However, the competition between the groups has not removed the wider security threat facing communities across the Sahel, where civilians remain exposed to violence, displacement and the disruption of livelihoods.

Al Jazeera